After a slight acceleration in the first half of the year, euro-zone GDP is likely to rise by 0.5% (q-o-q) in both Q3 and Q4 before slowing down to 0.4% in Q1 2005. As is already being pointed out in Ifo-Insee-Isae business surveys, the business climate has been showing signs of slackening: IPI growth, after a weak performance in Q3 (+0.3%), is expected to rise by 0.6% in Q4 and to decelerate to 0.4% in Q1 2005. On the domestic demand side, private consumption growth is expected to stabilise at 0.3% per quarter until the beginning of next year, in line with the low level of consumer confidence recorded by the institutes. On the assumption that the current high peaks of oil prices are temporary, inflation (HICP) will probably ease from its peak in Q2 to 2.2% over the time-horizon of this forecast.